Podcast: The manufacturing industry’s mid-year review – What the data says

Robert Brooks, editor in chief of Foundry Management & Technology and American Machinist, has been a business-to-business reporter, writer, editor, and columnist for more than 20 years, specializing in the primary metal and basic manufacturing industries. Robert and his editorial team report on the manufacturing activities in the metal casting sector, including foundries and die casters, and the manufacturing technology sector, including machine shops and machining operations that are a part of larger OEMs. In this episode of Great Question: A Manufacturing Podcast, Robert offers three perspectives on the state of manufacturing in the first half of 2024.

Below is an excerpt from the podcast:

Usually, I take the opportunity of this podcast time to speak with a guest on a subject of practical interest to people in manufacturing, particularly to those managers, operators, and executives in small- and mid-sized manufacturing businesses whose decision-making responsibilities are not given enough attention, in my opinion. Usually, I strive for information over opinion, but today I'm going to cross that line just a little bit. 2024 has reached its midpoint, and in business, that's a good time for evaluation. And in most vertical manufacturing sectors, this has not been an especially positive year. With slow demand leading to weak revenue growth, there's a lot of ominous news about different manufacturing businesses and not a lot of clear analysis, I believe, of what is causing this, what may change it, and what might be done to address it in the meantime. I'm going to devote this brief podcast to some of the surveys and reviews I've received from different sources in the hope that some of these findings will inform manufacturers, or at least support some of the insights or conclusions they have reached from their own recent experience.

First, I refer to a new report from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association (ELFA), whose monthly leasing and finance index surveys economic activity across the equipment finance sector. They're covering the activity of manufacturing businesses, but other businesses too, who are not making a permanent investment in new equipment but are arranging long-term service through lease. This is transportation equipment, office equipment, or any type of equipment that may be of use on an ongoing basis. In May, ELFA reports that new business volume for equipment financing totaled $10.2 billion, which was up 11% from May 2023. But month over month, the new business volume was down 7% from April. And year to date, the accumulative new business volume is up 6% compared to 2023. This is consistent with other reports. 2024 has seen stability in manufacturing investment in equipment, but it's not exactly robust.

The ELFA President and CEO Leigh Lytle said, “Overall, May monthly leasing and finance index results show solid performance with continued double-digit, year-over-year growth in organizations and positive year-to-date growth. Credit quality is mixed, but within historical norms. The drop in volume from April could be an indication that some businesses are holding off on acquiring equipment until interest rates come down. We'll be monitoring whether the effect of higher interest rates over the summer and into the fall will further delay equipment investments, which would be a headwind to economic activity through the second half of the year.”

This is a different frame of inquiry than the monthly U.S. manufacturing technology report prepared by AMT, the Association of Manufacturing Technology, but the analysis is largely consistent with that study of machine tool orders. Which is that manufacturers are being increasingly cautious about acquiring capital equipment because of the financing costs. That explains the ongoing anxiety over high interest rates. They have not stopped investing, either for leased equipment or for new purchases, but they are reducing their financial risks. And they're doing so out of a sense of caution, but also a sense of uncertainty about what comes next.

ELFA quoted a capital market analyst named David Lyder, who is executive vice president with Ascentium Capital. He said, and I quote, “We expect to see solid yet temperate demand for equipment financing through 2024. Small businesses are getting accustomed to higher-for-longer rates and higher equipment prices due to inflation. However, some are pausing any new investments for now.” That last detail is important, I think, because the effect of high interest rates and high inflation together is to keep everybody who is in a position to invest wondering if a better deal may yet come, and if they should wait to make the investment that they're planning. The investments will get made undoubtedly. But the delay is causing everyone to move slowly and to wonder and to wait for someone else to make the first move.

About the Podcast
Great Question: A Manufacturing Podcast offers news and information for the people who make, store and move things and those who manage and maintain the facilities where that work gets done. Manufacturers from chemical producers to automakers to machine shops can listen for critical insights into the technologies, economic conditions and best practices that can influence how to best run facilities to reach operational excellence.